Voting Begins in the Netherlands as Surveys Point to Possible Second Victory for Firebrand Leader Geert Wilders

Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.