The Reasons Saudi Investment Hasn't Turned The Magpies into Title Challengers

The Newcastle manager isn't typically given to histrionics or grand public pronouncements. Based on his standards, his media briefing following Sunday’s 3-1 defeat qualifies as a angry tirade. Newcastle scored first but the opposition took the lead by half-time, as well as hitting the post and seeing a spot-kick overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to execute a three substitutions at the break.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I think that was a reflection of our performance level at that stage during the match and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. Actually, I cannot recall having done so since I’ve been head coach of the club, therefore I believed the squad required some shaking up at half-time. That’s why I did those decisions.”

Three key players all came off at the interval and the team managed to steady somewhat in the latter period, without ever appearing like they could fight back into the game against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their last nine fixtures. Considering the congestion the centre of the table currently is, with a mere three-point gap dividing third from 11th, and nine points between second and 17th, a run of twelve points from 10 games has not placed Newcastle stranded but, similarly, they cannot finish the season in 13th.

The Problem of Expectations

The problem to an extent is one of public view. With the Saudi PIF, the club have the richest backers in the world. The assumption when the Saudi fund acquired a majority stake of the club in 2021 was that it would have a game-changing impact, similar to Roman Abramovich had at Chelsea or the City Group had at Manchester City. The difference is that both of those investors took over prior to the introduction of FFP regulations (and the current allegations against City concern if they breached those guidelines once they were implemented).

Financial regulations restrict the ability of proprietors, however rich, to invest funds on their teams and therefore likely would have hindered every Middle Eastern attempt to elevate the team to the level of City. However it wasn't necessary for the club's expenditure to have been quite as cautious as it has been; they might have invested further and stayed inside the limit – or just accepted a fairly minor European penalty since their major issue is more with the European than the domestic rules.

Infrastructure Spending and PSR Rules

Besides which, stadium development is exempted from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the simplest way to raise income to create additional PSR headroom would be to extend or redevelop the arena. Considering the location of St James’ Park, with protected structures on multiple sides, in reality that likely implies building an completely new venue. Rumors circulated in spring of possibly making the short move to a local park – resistance from local groups could surely have been overcome with a commitment to create a new park on the existing stadium site – but there has not been any progress on that proposal. There has occurred significant cutbacks from the PIF on a range of projects as it shifts focus on domestic affairs; the approach to Newcastle appears entirely in alignment with that strategic shift.

The Alexander Isak Situation

The Alexander Isak episode was born of that conflict. A more confident management might have framed his transfer as essential to release capital for additional investment; instead there was a unsuccessful attempt to keep him. That meant the team started the campaign amidst a sense of frustration despite the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was indifferent: a single victory in their first six fixtures.

But it appeared a turning point was reached. They had won five in six before the weekend, a streak that included convincing wins of Union Saint-Gilloise and a Portuguese club in the European competition. This explains the performance against West Ham was so surprising. The issue maybe is that the team's approach is extremely intense, high-energy; a minor decrease in energy can have significant consequences. Maybe the pressure of Premier League, Champions League and Carabao Cup competition, five fixtures in 15 days, had taken its toll. Woltemade featured in all five games and looked particularly fatigued.

The Nature of Modern Football

That’s the reality of today's football. Coaches have to be prepared to rotate. Howe has been unfortunate that the forward's fitness issue has meant he is short of attacking options but, no matter how valid the reasons, Sunday’s performance was unacceptable –especially after taking the lead at a ground primed to criticize its home team.

Howe will hope it was just a blip, an off-day when all players is off-colour simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to qualify for the Champions League in the future, let alone one day mount an actual title challenge, they must not be as unreliable as this.