MAGA Voters for Mamdani and a Emerging Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Surprises from NYC’s Election

Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots that came in later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where election day went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. So it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

Prior to the election we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.