Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.